Across Bolivia’s Altiplano, fewer Aymara farmers are using traditional weather knowledge to plan essential agricultural activities, including crop planting and frost or drought preparation. At the same time, many communities question whether these Indigenous weather indicators remain accurate amid rapid social, economic, and climate changes.
Farmers face additional challenges because Bolivia’s National Weather Service, SEHNAMI, has difficulty delivering reliable local forecasts. The Andes’ complex geography and limited network of weather stations make accurate predictions difficult. Many farmers also cannot access available forecasts because SEHNAMI has few local outreach programs to distribute weather information directly to rural communities. In this region, where technical forecasting services remain limited, traditional Aymara weather knowledge is an important resource—but its use is declining.
Previous research often focused on preserving Indigenous weather knowledge or examining how it could support climate change adaptation. However, relatively few studies have scientifically validated traditional weather indicators. This type of research requires decades of meteorological records to determine how accurately local signs predict future weather conditions.
To address this gap, researchers from the United States and Bolivia recently evaluated traditional Aymara weather indicators in two Bolivian municipalities: Umala in the Central Altiplano and Ancoraimes in the Northern Altiplano. The team paired each traditional indicator with a measurable scientific variable, such as temperature. This method allowed researchers to compare Indigenous observations with long-term meteorological data.
The study examined whether Aymara weather indicators remain accurate and useful under current environmental conditions. Validating these forecasting methods could strengthen local knowledge and support schools, agricultural programs, and public policies that promote Indigenous climate knowledge. Researchers worked with six Aymara communities, holding workshops with local leaders and experts to identify traditional indicators. They then surveyed 95 farmers, who ranked the reliability of each indicator.
The research team identified 13 traditional weather indicators in the Central Altiplano and 20 in the Northern Altiplano. These signs included the behavior of plants and animals, as well as physical factors such as constellations and wind patterns. Farmers used them to determine when and where to plant crops and to anticipate weather conditions during the next growing season. Researchers focused on two indicators that farmers considered especially reliable: moisture under rocks on the Fiesta de San Juan, celebrated on June 24, and the flowering patterns of the Thola and Sank’ayu plants. Farmers used the San Juan indicator to predict whether the coming year would be wet or dry. They also observed these plants to identify safer planting dates and reduce risks from frost.
The researchers compared forecasts based on these two traditional signs with more than 30 years of meteorological data collected from nearby weather stations. In both cases, minimum daily temperature served as the scientific measurement representing the local indicators. The results showed that minimum temperature on the Fiesta de San Juan explained 55.5% of the variation in rainfall during the growing season. Researchers also confirmed that severe frosts, which “burned” Thola and Sank’ayu flowers, were followed by periods of reduced rainfall. This finding supported farmers’ practice of delaying planting after these warning signs appear.
The study concluded that traditional Aymara weather indicators are particularly valuable for seasonal agricultural planning, especially for predicting the beginning of the rainy season. These findings help validate Indigenous weather knowledge and strengthen community-led climate adaptation. In response, participating communities have begun holding regular meetings to discuss seasonal forecasts and sharing information with neighboring farmers through WhatsApp groups.
However, researchers noted that traditional forecasting has limitations. Local indicators may provide warnings only a few hours in advance, while farmers need forecasts several days ahead to reduce damage from frost, hail, and other extreme weather events. The researchers therefore recommend developing co-produced forecasts that combine meteorological science with Aymara traditional knowledge. This approach could provide more useful, locally relevant climate information for farmers across Bolivia’s Altiplano.
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Source: sciworthy.com