Turbulence is an unavoidable aspect of air travel, often causing the need for sick bags. While it’s a common occurrence, turbulence can pose serious risks.
In May 2024, a flight from London to Singapore experienced severe turbulence over Myanmar, resulting in an emergency landing. Tragically, one man died from a suspected heart attack, and numerous others were hospitalized.
A few days later, another flight from Doha to Dublin saw eight passengers hospitalized due to turbulence.
Most recently, on May 23, 2026, a Cathay Pacific flight from Brisbane to Hong Kong encountered intense turbulence, injuring ten individuals, including four passengers and six crew members.
This increasing frequency of turbulence incidents raises concerns about whether turbulence is becoming more common or intense.
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Turbulence occurs when abrupt changes in airflow cause an aircraft to shake or sway. This is typically due to storm clouds, weather fronts, the wakes of other aircraft, and air rising over mountainous terrain.
In most instances, pilots can predict and avoid these types of turbulence using established data.
A more unpredictable and dangerous type, known as clear-air turbulence, arises from wind shear at the interface between two air masses traveling at different speeds. This form of turbulence can strike suddenly, leaving flight attendants unprepared to activate the seatbelt sign.
This situation likely occurred on a recent Singapore Airlines flight in May. A preliminary report from the Singapore Ministry of Transport revealed that the aircraft dropped 54 meters (177 feet) in less than a second, causing unbelted passengers to collide with ceiling panels. Over 100 passengers required medical attention upon landing, with approximately 50 being hospitalized.
Meteorologists and aviation experts predict that turbulence will become more frequent as weather patterns evolve due to climate change.
Recent studies analyzing over 40 years of satellite data indicate that clear-air turbulence has been on the rise. Scientists at the University of Reading found that wind shear, which contributes to instability in the jet stream, has increased by 15% since 1979. Furthermore, severe clear-air turbulence along some of the world’s busiest flight routes rose by 55% in the same timeframe.
The authors warn that if current warming trends persist, pilots could face twice, or even three times, the amount of severe turbulence by 2050.
Despite these alarming figures, the absolute risk of injury for passengers remains very low. According to the US Federal Aviation Administration, only 163 individuals were seriously injured by turbulence between 2009 and 2022, with nearly 80% being airline crew members. Out of the over 800 million flights that take off in the United States annually, only about 5,500 experience severe turbulence.
The most effective way to enhance your safety during a flight is to always wear your seatbelt while seated, as most injuries occur among those not buckled in.
This article, by Dominic Hamilton in London, addresses the question: “Is climate change making turbulence worse?”
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Source: www.sciencefocus.com