Polymarket’s Newsletter Turns Prediction Markets Into News

Every day, a newsletter from prediction market Polymarket arrives in my inbox. Its subject lines could easily appear in a newspaper or magazine focused on politics. Recent examples include “Houthis reveal new precision strike capability,” “Breaking news: President Trump unveils green energy beam,” and “World War I, 2.0?”

These newsletters are compendiums of the day’s top news, each linked to a corresponding Polymarket market. Yes, this happens. No, it is not exactly Bloomberg about money or Emily Sundberg’s Feed Me. But it is clearly a commercial editorial product, and it plays an important role in the prediction market ecosystem.

The Legal Fight Over Prediction Markets

The prediction market industry is currently embroiled in legal battles over whether these platforms are financial services, as the companies and federal government argue, or gambling platforms, as many state officials and regulators contend.

The dispute over how these companies should be classified could reach the Supreme Court. In the meantime, Polymarket and its more popular rival, Kalshi, have also begun positioning themselves as new media organizations. For two companies focused on risk, this is a particularly old-fashioned form of hedging.

Prediction Markets Are Expanding Into Mainstream Media

Technology startups of all kinds are launching editorial projects. For example, alternative dating app Feld publishes a magazine. But a leading prediction market is making inroads into the mainstream media apparatus in a particularly aggressive way.

A recent report noted that prediction markets are integrated into one-quarter of the top 20 companies listed in the communications services sector of the S&P 500.

Polymarket has partnered with Dow Jones and Substack, while Kalshi has partnered with CNN, CNBC and Fox Corp.

Why Media Companies Are Partnering With Prediction Markets

None of these agreements facilitate trading. Instead, they primarily involve data sharing. News organizations want to know what people are spending their money on, and prediction markets are happy to provide that information.

These partnerships introduce prediction markets as information channels for understanding what is happening in the world. They have given Polymarket and Kalshi much-needed credibility while providing the broader public with an easy-to-understand introduction to prediction markets.

Supporters describe prediction markets as “truth machines” that reveal public sentiment more accurately than polls or traditional reporting. When media organizations determine their own odds for newsworthy events, they reinforce that message.

“It’s clear that there is informational value given the market’s predicted success,” said Kalshi spokesman Jack Thatch. “And three out of four users do not make any transactions. This suggests that the information provision use case is popular enough to be taken very seriously.” Polymarket declined to comment.

Polymarket and Kalshi Use Social Media Like Newsrooms

Providing data is only one part of how prediction market companies function as new media entities. On social media, official Polymarket and Kalshi accounts post and present information much like news organizations.

The approach is a mashup of PopCrave’s enthusiastic sensibility and Bloomberg’s coverage area. The effort is not entirely reliable, however. A New York Times analysis found that Polymarket’s news-focused social accounts had published “false and misleading information” earlier this year.

Polymarket’s “News 2.0” Ambitions

Shayne Coplan, Polymarket’s CEO and founder, referred to the company’s partnership with X as “News 2.0.” In 2024, Polymarket hinted at even broader ambitions.

The company began recruiting an editor in chief to lead its “content and data journalism” efforts. Later that year, political analyst and media founder Nate Silver was hired as an advisor, although the company did not hire him as an employee.

On its career page, the company invites future employees to “become the new front page of the Internet.”

Kalshi Says It Is a Financial Exchange, Not a Media Company

Kalshi does not typically describe itself in the same way. When asked whether the company considers itself a media company, spokesman Jack Thatch told WIRED that the news-tracking market has a “quasi-media” quality, but Kalshi itself does not.

“We think of ourselves as a financial exchange,” he said.