Super El Niño Forecast to Intensify, Raising Risks of Extreme Weather Worldwide

The ongoing El Niño phenomenon has surpassed the threshold for a “super” event, as Earth enters an increasingly unusual climate regime. The powerful climate pattern is adding heat to an already warming planet and could disrupt weather patterns around the world, increasing the risk of humanitarian crises in some regions.

El Niño is part of a natural, multiyear climate cycle. However, scientists say human-caused climate change may be intensifying the phenomenon and placing additional stress on already vulnerable natural systems.

NOAA forecasts an exceptionally strong El Niño

In its latest update, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s (NOAA) Climate Prediction Center forecast a 75% chance that this El Niño will be stronger than any event recorded since 1950. NOAA said this is the first year it has had enough data to make that historical comparison.

Weekly measurements from the eastern tropical Pacific show sea-surface temperatures reaching 3.8 degrees Fahrenheit (2.1 degrees Celsius) above average. That is higher than the 3.6 F (2 C) threshold commonly used to describe a very strong, or “super,” El Niño.

NOAA classifies El Niño intensity using three-month averages because weekly measurements can be affected by temporary anomalies. Even so, the latest data supports NOAA’s forecast of more than a 90% chance of a very strong El Niño during the fall and winter.

How will El Niño affect the United States?

During El Niño, warm water accumulates in the eastern Pacific near the equator. This can shift the jet stream southward, increasing the likelihood of wetter and stormier winters across California and the southern United States. Northern states may experience fewer storms and milder winter conditions, according to the NOAA Climate Prediction Center.

El Niño can also raise the risk of storm-surge flooding, particularly along the West Coast. However, its effects vary by region. A stronger El Niño generally makes expected patterns more likely, but it does not guarantee specific weather outcomes.

What happened during previous super El Niño events?

The most recent “super” El Niño events occurred in 2015 and 2016. Their associated impacts included a historic hurricane season in the central North Pacific and record drought in the Caribbean, according to Climate.gov.

Earlier super El Niño events occurred in 1997 and 1998. That winter was linked to numerous extreme-weather events, including flooding in the Southeast, ice storms in the Northeast and tornadoes in Florida, according to a National Climatic Data Center report.

What is El Niño?

El Niño begins with unusually warm water in the eastern tropical Pacific Ocean, but its effects can extend across the entire planet. NOAA identifies El Niño when sea-surface temperatures in the region are at least 0.9 F (0.5 C) above average and when winds, surface pressure and precipitation also match the expected pattern.

El Niño events are classified from weak to very strong. A very strong event, with temperatures more than 3.6 F (2 C) above average, is often called a “super” El Niño. However, “super El Niño” is not a formal scientific term.

El Niño forecast for late 2026

On September 3, the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) issued a new El Niño warning. The agency said its latest update provides a clearer picture of conditions expected during the coming months.

WMO’s multimodel projections indicate an increased likelihood of above-normal temperatures across nearly all land areas from September through November 2026. The projections also show rainfall patterns associated with a strong Pacific El Niño, including wetter conditions in some regions and drier conditions in others.

Models from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts suggest that El Niño temperatures will remain above the 2 C threshold and could rise further by the end of the year. Other climate monitoring data recorded El Niño temperatures at 5.5 F (3.06 C) above average on September 20.

Despite the apparent intensification, uncertainty remains over the precise effects of this year’s event.

Global risks include drought, flooding and heat

The strongest impacts of this El Niño are expected outside North America. Liz Stephens, a professor of climate risk and resilience at the University of Reading in the United Kingdom, said satellite data showed that India’s monsoon rainfall was below average, while parts of East Africa, Central America and Southeast Asia were experiencing exceptionally dry conditions.

These shifts can have serious consequences for human health and safety. Stephens noted that more than 2,000 people died during the 1997–1998 El Niño event and associated floods in Somalia.

Climate change may increase the risks linked to future El Niño events because warmer air and oceans can intensify flooding, heat and other extreme-weather hazards. As WMO representatives have warned, a large-scale El Niño is underway, and the consequences could include more severe flooding in vulnerable regions.

El Niño and hurricane activity

Tropical storms in Hawaii have been linked to El Niño because the oceans where storms typically form have become warmer, according to CNN.

At the same time, the Atlantic Ocean has appeared unusually calm. Ars Technica reported that the Atlantic hurricane season had passed its traditional peak without a tropical storm or hurricane, making it a historically quiet season so far.

El Niño does not affect every region in the same way, and seasonal forecasts cannot predict every individual storm or drought. But the strengthening event is likely to influence global temperatures, rainfall and extreme-weather risks through the coming months.