New Guinea Fires Intensify During El Niño Drought, NASA Satellite Image Shows

New Guinea, the second-largest island in the world, is home to extraordinary plant diversity and more than a dozen ecoregions, including seasonally dry savannas, tropical rainforests, and lowland wetland forests. However, in September and October 2026, a strong El Niño event brought severe drought to the island. Fires scorched large areas, while smoke blanketed parts of New Guinea for several weeks.

NASA satellite captures smoke over New Guinea

Imagery from the Visible Infrared Imaging Radiometer Suite (VIIRS) aboard the NOAA-20 satellite captured thick smoke streaming from southern New Guinea on October 11, 2026. Air pollution levels have eased in recent weeks, but the haze has caused widespread disruption.

Smoke led to canceled flights, school closures, and public health warnings in some regions. Officials recommended that children and older adults wear masks. The haze also spread beyond Papua, affecting areas of Indonesia.

“Smoke that drifts into the convection currents of nearby thunderstorms can be washed away or lifted into the upper troposphere, but much of it remains near the surface and causes air quality problems,” said Robert Field, an associate research scientist at NASA’s Goddard Institute for Space Studies and Columbia University. “It’s a terrible situation.”

Fire emissions reach record levels in Papua New Guinea

According to the Global Fire Emissions Database (GFED), fires in Papua New Guinea, on the eastern half of the island, released approximately 32 megatons of carbon dioxide through October 19. That total was higher than any other year at the same point in the record.

“Emissions have already far exceeded the annual total of 2015, making this year the best year on record for Papua New Guinea, and very likely even surpassing 1997,” said Guido van der Werff, a fire scientist at Wageningen University Research.

On the Indonesian side of the island—also known as West New Guinea or Indonesia-Papua—carbon dioxide emissions reached 35 megatons. This was the third-highest total after 2015 and 1997, the only other El Niño years associated with severe fires.

Van der Werff helped develop GFED, a satellite-driven modeling framework that estimates the extent and emissions of vegetation fires using remote sensing, vegetation characteristics, and other data collected over nearly three decades.

El Niño drought makes southern New Guinea more flammable

El Niño changed rainfall patterns across the region, leaving parts of New Guinea unusually dry. The southernmost tip of Papua New Guinea is dominated by savanna and grassland, ecosystems that are relatively prone to fire.

In the Trans-Fly savanna and grasslands, some areas reportedly went more than 90 consecutive days without rain, according to the Papua New Guinea National Meteorological Bureau. Since August, parts of the region have recorded only about one rainfall event, with totals reaching just 5–10 percent of normal, according to meteorological data.

Local reports have linked the drought to poor harvests, water shortages, and disruption to schools. Fires and smoke have added further pressure to communities already facing difficult conditions.

Human activity drives most fires

Researchers say humans start most fires in this typically humid region. Common causes include crop burning, pasture maintenance, deforestation, land clearing, and hunting. During dry conditions, controlled fires can spread beyond their intended boundaries and become wildfires, especially in the drier southern parts of the island.

“This year we’ve seen very high levels of fire activity in Papua New Guinea and eastern Indonesia, especially in Papua and Kalimantan, compared to Sumatra and other parts of western Indonesia,” said Yang Chen, an associate research scientist at the University of California, Irvine. “Papua has emerged as Indonesia’s new deforestation frontier.”

Over the past two decades, Indonesian Papua has lost land to industrial oil palm and pulpwood plantations, small-scale cultivation, urban expansion, and mining. According to Global Forest Watch, the region lost 27,000 hectares of primary forest in 2025—almost double the 2024 total and the highest amount since 2017.

Wildfire activity in Sumatra is relatively low compared with other drought years, partly because many areas have already been developed. “Areas with large oil palm, sugar cane, or pulpwood plantations often have their own private fire brigade to protect their assets,” Field said. “Typically, the most fires occur in unmanaged areas and at the edges of old-growth forests.”

Fires expected to continue until seasonal rains arrive

Researchers expect fires to continue until heavy rains reach southern New Guinea, which usually occurs in early November.

NASA Earth Observatory images and graphs by Michala Garrison using NASA data from LANCE, GIBS/Worldview, the Joint Polar Satellite System (JPSS), and the Global Fire Emissions Database (GFED). The story is by Adam Voiland.

Sources

• BMKG (October 13, 2026), Analysis of Atmospheric Dynamics, October 2026. Accessed October 21, 2026.
• Chen, Y. et al. (October 15, 2026), Tracking recent extremes and interannual fluctuations in global fire emissions using near-real-time extensions to the Global Fire Emissions Database. Earth System Science Data, 18(10), 7535–7555.
• Field, R. et al. (2009), Increasing anthropogenic biomass burning in Indonesia since 1960. Nature Geoscience, 2, 185–188.
• FM100 (October 16, 2026), Fire officials confirm 236 wildfires amid El Niño drought. Accessed October 21, 2026.
• Global Fire Emissions Database (2026), Current fire situation. Accessed October 21, 2026.
• Mongabay (January 14, 2026), After years of progress, Indonesia risks a “tragedy” of soaring deforestation. Accessed October 21, 2026.
• NASA (2026), Fire Information for Resource Management System (FIRMS). Accessed October 21, 2026.
• NASA Earth Observatory (March 9, 2021), Deforestation in Papua. Accessed October 21, 2026.
• Nusantara Atlas (July 20, 2026), Monthly burn scars and fire season progress now published in Nusantara Atlas. Accessed October 21, 2026.
• PNGMET (2026), Papua New Guinea Drought Dashboard. Accessed October 21, 2026.
• Putra Bhayankara (October 14, 2026), Thick smoke continues to cover Asmat and parts of South Papua. Accessed October 21, 2026.
• RNZ (October 16, 2026), Haze over Papua from forest fires causes major disruption and health problems. Accessed October 21, 2026.
• Gadjah Mada University (October 14, 2026), Peatland conditions and limited access to firefighting hamper fire suppression. Accessed October 21, 2026.
• Yurianti, N. & Hayasaka, H. (2023), Recent active fires caused by El Niño in Papua Province, southern Indonesia. Remote Sensing, 15(11), 2709.