Siberia’s Warming Climate Could Trigger a Major Methane Feedback Loop

Two distinct climate regimes are emerging across Siberia as the Arctic warms. New research suggests these contrasting patterns could accelerate methane emissions and create a powerful feedback loop that intensifies global warming.

Western Siberia is becoming wetter as atmospheric circulation carries more heat and moisture inland from the North Atlantic. Eastern Siberia, meanwhile, is becoming hotter, drier and increasingly vulnerable to extreme wildfires, according to a study published in Science on Aug. 6, 2026.

The Yenisei River basin, which crosses central Siberia, illustrates the sharp environmental divide between the two regions. The study authors describe these distinct climate patterns as separate “regimes” because each produces different effects on permafrost, wetlands, forests and greenhouse gas emissions.

Between 2010 and 2023, Siberia’s methane emissions increased by approximately 5% per year, the researchers estimated. In western Siberia, the main source was microbial activity in thawing soils and wetlands. In eastern Siberia, methane emissions were driven largely by wildfires and the combustion of vegetation and organic-rich soils.

“An increase in methane emissions was expected given the observed increases in permafrost thaw, wetland activity and wildfire occurrence,” study co-author Paul Palmer, a professor at the University of Edinburgh’s School of Geosciences, told Live Science by email. “What’s surprising is how large and sustained that increase has been.”

Annual methane emissions rose by an estimated 13.2 million tons (12 million metric tons) during the study period. That increase is comparable to the growth in methane emissions from wetlands worldwide. Siberia currently contributes approximately 5% of global methane emissions, but it is becoming one of the planet’s fastest-growing natural methane sources, Palmer said.

How researchers measured Siberia’s methane emissions

Palmer and his colleagues combined satellite observations with near-surface measurements to map methane emissions across Siberia over time. Rather than adding up individual methane sources measured on the ground, the researchers used a modeling method called a methane flux inversion system.

This approach helped the team estimate regional methane emissions while keeping uncertainty to approximately 10%. Monitoring Siberia is especially challenging because the region is vast, remote and sparsely equipped with ground-based instruments. Access has also become more difficult because of the war between Russia and Ukraine.

Satellites require sunlight to detect methane, and Siberia receives very little sunlight during winter. However, most methane emissions are believed to occur during spring and summer, when longer daylight hours make satellite monitoring more effective, Palmer said.

Why western Siberia is releasing more methane

The study indicates that Arctic warming is increasing methane emissions through different pathways in western and eastern Siberia. Climate models suggest that continued warming could release millions of tons of greenhouse gases currently stored in permafrost and forests, further accelerating climate change.

In western Siberia, methane is released primarily from thawing permafrost and wetlands. Permafrost is ground that remains frozen for at least two consecutive years. Siberia contains approximately 46% of the Northern Hemisphere’s permafrost, much of which stores carbon accumulated over thousands of years.

Western Siberia is influenced by a circulation pattern known as the Scandinavian pattern. This system includes a major atmospheric pressure center over Scandinavia and weaker opposing centers over western Europe and eastern Russia.

The Scandinavian pattern can transport additional warmth and moisture from the North Atlantic Ocean into western Siberia. Combined with rising regional temperatures, this increases permafrost thaw and wetland activity. Once frozen organic matter becomes available, microbes can break it down and produce methane, a greenhouse gas that is far more effective at trapping heat than carbon dioxide over shorter timescales.

Why eastern Siberia is becoming more vulnerable to wildfires

Eastern Siberia is affected by another climate pattern called the Arctic Oscillation. This pattern describes a “seesaw” in atmospheric pressure between the Arctic and the mid-latitudes of the Northern Hemisphere.

Climate change may influence the Arctic Oscillation in ways that promote persistent high-pressure systems over eastern Siberia. These conditions can reduce cloud cover, intensify heat waves and dry vegetation, increasing the risk of severe wildfires.

“Eastern Siberia is warming faster than western Siberia and is experiencing a sharp increase in extreme wildfires, which appears to be the main driver of the projected increase,” Palmer said. “Whether this trend continues depends on how much vegetation remains that can be burned, but there is also evidence that fires may be accelerating permafrost thaw and methane release from previously frozen ground.”

Wildfires can release methane directly by burning vegetation and organic-rich soils. They can also remove insulating layers of plants and soil, allowing sunlight and warmer air to penetrate deeper into the ground. This can destabilize permafrost and expose additional carbon to microbial decomposition.

Could Siberia trigger a methane feedback loop?

Climate models consistently show that methane emissions tend to rise as temperatures increase. If warming accelerates permafrost thaw, wetland activity and wildfire frequency at the same time, methane emissions could grow even more rapidly, creating a feedback loop: warming produces more methane, and additional methane causes further warming.

The increase recorded in the study is still small compared with total global methane emissions and with the larger increases projected under continued warming. However, the researchers warn that wildfires could destabilize eastern Siberia’s permafrost and unlock much larger emissions in the future.

“Siberia’s vast permafrost carbon reservoir is a sleeping giant,” Palmer said. “If warming continues, there is a risk that much larger sources of greenhouse gases will awaken.”