Climate Checkup: 7 of 16 Planetary Vital Signs Reach Extreme Levels

The climate is just I had my annual health checkup, and the results do not seem too bad.

“If Earth were a patient coming in for an annual checkup, I would say the condition is serious and getting worse,” said Bill Ripple, a researcher at Oregon State University.

Ripple is the author of a new paper published Wednesday in the journal BioScience. The report tracks 16 planetary vital signs and finds that seven have reached conditions more extreme than ever recorded.

Climate change is pushing key indicators to record extremes

The report highlights the continued combustion of fossil fuels, which has increased atmospheric carbon dioxide concentrations by 50% above pre-industrial levels. The effects of burning oil, coal and gas are also evident in the climate system. Greenland and Antarctic ice sheets are shrinking to record lows, while ocean heating is reaching record highs.

The analysis shows that climate change has accelerated the pace of warming—from about 0.05 degrees Celsius per decade between 1880 and 1970 to 0.36 degrees Celsius per decade since 2010. Average global temperatures, including temperatures over land, are not yet at record extremes. However, as El Niño strengthens, temperatures could change by the end of the year.

El Niño is a natural climate pattern marked by warmer-than-normal waters in the Pacific Ocean. It increases global heat levels as more energy enters the atmosphere, and this year’s event is shaping up to be one for the record books.

“A strong El Niño could temporarily increase global temperatures further, bringing more heat and drought to vulnerable regions,” Ripple said. “El Niño is a natural phenomenon, but it now occurs on a much warmer planet, so its effects are potentially more dangerous.”

Coral reefs face greater risk from ocean heating

Ecosystems such as coral reefs and tropical forests are of particular concern. Rising ocean heat can accelerate mass coral die-offs, known as coral bleaching. With each bleaching event, coral reefs become less resilient and less able to recover.

Corals are among the ecosystems most threatened by climate change. If global warming exceeds 1.5 degrees Celsius, the majority of the world’s corals may not be able to survive.

El Niño adds pressure to the Amazon rainforest

Tropical forests are also facing increased pressure from El Niño, especially in the Amazon, where the climate pattern tends to bring drier weather. The timing is particularly troubling. The region, often called the “lungs of the world,” is already under intense pressure from logging and mining interests and could face the return of Brazil’s right-wing government, which prioritizes mining and land clearing over conservation.

The report warns that the Amazon is one of the ecosystems at risk of crossing a tipping point—a threshold at which it could transition from rainforest to something more like a savannah. It is highly unlikely that this tipping point is imminent, and it is even less likely to occur this year. However, El Niño will intensify weather conditions this year, potentially bringing the Amazon closer to that threshold.

“Warming, drought, and deforestation could push the Amazon toward widespread deforestation,” Ripple said. “My concern is that these changes may interact and become increasingly difficult to stop.”

Renewable energy is growing, but emissions remain at record highs

The report is largely filled with bad news for the climate, but it also points to the growing role of carbon-free energy sources in the power grid. The authors describe this development as evidence that the “age of electricity” has arrived.

Despite the growth of renewable energy, annual greenhouse gas emissions remain at an all-time high. In other words, the world is still smoking a pack a day even as it risks losing a lung.

“While there are some bright spots, particularly the growth of renewable energy, it is not yet enough to reverse the overall deterioration,” Ripple said. “The climate emergency is not something that awaits us in the future. We are already through this crisis.”