Expanded hurricane maps improve inland risk awareness

Researchers at Florida State University examined whether changes to the National Hurricane Center’s (NHC) forecast maps could improve the public’s understanding of hurricane threats. Faculty members from the School of Communication and the Department of Geography within the School of Communication and Information Studies participated in the research.

The team evaluated experimental graphics that expand the traditional hurricane forecast cone to include tropical cyclone and hurricane watches and warnings for inland areas. Historically, the familiar cone has focused more heavily on coastal communities, even though dangerous winds, flooding and tornadoes can affect areas far from the coastline.

The findings were mixed. The revised map helped people without specialized weather knowledge identify inland areas under hurricane and tropical storm watches. However, it did not significantly change how dangerous they believed the storm was or whether they intended to take protective measures. Participants also did not improve at identifying areas covered by storm warnings.

The updated format was developed by the NHC in 2024. The findings were published in the Journal of the American Meteorological Society and Weather, Climate, and Society.

“The National Hurricane Center has made a number of thoughtful changes to improve the way hurricane information is disseminated,” said Associate Professor Elizabeth Ray, the study’s lead author. “We had a simple question: Do these changes actually help people understand what the graphics are telling them about the risks they face?”

Why people misunderstand hurricane forecast maps

To study how the public interprets hurricane forecasts, researchers surveyed residents of Florida and Georgia. Participants viewed either a traditional hurricane cone graphic or a new experimental version containing additional information about inland storm threats.

People who viewed the revised map were better able to pinpoint locations under hurricane and tropical cyclone watches. However, greater awareness of a watch zone did not lead to increased concern about potential dangers or a stronger intention to take safety measures.

The results also highlight persistent misunderstandings about the familiar hurricane “cone of uncertainty.” Many people incorrectly interpret the cone’s width as a measure of the storm’s physical size rather than as an indication of uncertainty about the storm’s expected path.

“Years of research have shown that people often mistake broader cones for larger storms,” Ray said. “Our findings suggest that even if the graphics are updated, that misconception may be difficult to dispel.”

Why hurricane warnings alone may not be enough

The NHC introduced expanded forecast graphics in 2024 to help people understand that hurricane risk is not limited to coastal communities. Flooding, tornadoes and destructive winds can threaten inland areas, meaning residents beyond coastal evacuation zones may still face serious risks.

By adding inland hurricane and tropical storm watches and warnings to the traditional forecast cone, the updated graphics offer a more complete picture of where hazardous conditions may occur.

However, the study suggests that adding useful information to a forecast does not automatically make people more aware of their personal risk or more likely to respond appropriately.

The researchers emphasized that their findings do not question the accuracy of NHC weather forecasts. Instead, the results highlight the challenge of presenting complex weather information in a way that people can easily understand and use when making safety decisions.

“Our question wasn’t whether the science was good,” said co-author Patrick Merle, professor and director of the School of Communication. “Science is great. The question is how do we communicate that science so that people who are not meteorologists can understand the risks they face?”

“Communication is poor if people feel the information is reliable but don’t understand it well enough to take protective measures. The goal is to provide information that people can use to stay safe.”

How to better understand hurricane risk

The findings demonstrate the importance of looking beyond a single forecast graphic when preparing for a hurricane. Although forecast cones provide valuable information about a storm’s expected path, they cannot show every danger a particular community may experience.

Researchers recommend using hurricane forecast maps alongside local weather forecasts and detailed information about potential impacts. Understanding the specific threats facing an area, as well as the protective measures residents should consider, can provide a more useful basis for making safety decisions.

“Our findings remind us that a single graphic can only tell part of the story,” Ray said. “Don’t rely on cones alone; combine them with clear local information about what impacts to expect and what actions to take. This will give you a more complete picture of how the storm is likely to affect you where you live and what to do next.”

The research was funded through an internal Florida State University SEED grant. The study was also informed by discussions with the NHC, which provided the experimental predictive graphics evaluated by the research team.

Bradford Johnson, assistant professor in the Department of Geography, contributed as a co-author.