El Niño is releasing vast amounts of heat from the Pacific Ocean into the atmosphere, increasing global temperatures and disrupting rainfall patterns worldwide.
Scientists officially declare an El Niño event when sea surface temperatures across key regions of the Pacific Ocean rise at least 0.5°C above the long-term average.
The latest measurements show that Pacific Ocean temperatures are already more than 2°C above normal, signaling an exceptionally strong El Niño.
Forecasts from the Japan Meteorological Agency indicate that these temperature anomalies could climb above 3°C later this year, as the El Niño climate pattern reaches its peak.
If confirmed, the event would be unprecedented in records dating back to 1950 and could become the most powerful El Niño since the 19th century.
Exceptionally warm water in the deep Pacific—measured at approximately 8°C above average at depths of around 100 meters (330 feet) in some locations—could further strengthen El Niño. This deep-ocean heat acts as a reservoir of energy that may intensify the climate phenomenon.
“We still have many months before this event fully develops, which is one reason we are becoming increasingly confident that it could be a record-breaking El Niño,” said Dr. Zeke Hausfather, a climate scientist at Berkeley Earth.
Several climate organizations have issued even more extreme forecasts than the UK Met Office, suggesting Pacific Ocean temperatures could reach as much as 4°C above average.
If those projections become reality, Hausfather said, “it would not be beyond the realm of possibility to describe this as the strongest El Niño event in 500 or even 1,000 years.” However, scientists cannot confirm with certainty how far historical comparisons can be extended.
Source: www.bbc.co.uk