NATO Considers Anti-Drone Defenses as Black Sea Shipping Risks Rise

NATO officials are considering moving existing anti-drone countermeasures to the Black Sea region after requests from Bulgaria, Romania, and Turkey, diplomats told Politico. The three countries are also cooperating to protect freedom of navigation in the Black Sea. Bulgarian Prime Minister Radev is expected to present a related proposal to the European Union this week.

Why the Black Sea is becoming more dangerous

NATO navies have avoided military exercises in the Black Sea since Russia launched its full-scale invasion of Ukraine in 2022. The decision is tied in part to the 1936 Montreux Convention, which gives Turkey the power to restrict shipping through the strait connecting the Mediterranean Sea and the Black Sea.

Those restrictions have also prevented Russia from building up or replacing its Black Sea Fleet during the war.

Although Ukraine largely lacks a conventional navy, it has successfully used air and sea drones to neutralize Russian warships and disrupt Russian-linked shipping and ports. Russia has responded with its own drone attacks on Ukrainian ports and ships, occasionally targeting vessels from other countries in the region.

Ukraine’s shipping routes and agricultural exports

Since the fall of 2023, Ukrainian vessels have typically used sea lanes passing through the territorial waters of Romania, Bulgaria, or Turkey in the Black Sea, according to the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace. Black Sea shipping is particularly important for Ukraine’s agricultural exports, which account for well over 90%.

A recent series of possible Russian attacks in the Black Sea has disrupted shipping carrying Ukraine’s latest crop to other parts of Europe, Politico reported. Some cargo has been rerouted overland or through the Danube River.

Black Sea incidents raise NATO security concerns

The unprecedented attacks in waters near NATO countries coincide with a growing wave of incidents attributed to Russia’s hybrid and gray-zone tactics. These include an attempted explosive-drone attack on a Ukrainian cargo plane at Germany’s Leipzig airport and the discovery of a Russian drone boat loaded with explosives near a Romanian offshore gas platform in the Black Sea.

According to the Carnegie Endowment, Turkey, Romania, and Bulgaria have strengthened their navies since the start of the war while developing closer cooperation on maritime security. Rising risks to commercial shipping in the Black Sea are likely to accelerate that cooperation—and could prompt a broader response from the NATO alliance.