Battery Manufacturing Emissions Could Rise More Than 10-Fold by 2050

The first challenge in the energy transition is electrifying applications such as vehicles and heating while ensuring that the electricity powering them comes from renewable energy. As major sources of emissions decline, however, other categories with less potential for reduction become increasingly important.

New research led by Haiwei Zhou of the University of Melbourne examines emissions from manufacturing lithium-ion batteries, which are central to much of the energy transition. Battery production does not have zero emissions, meaning that greater battery use will increase the associated emissions.

Researchers currently estimate that lithium-ion battery manufacturing accounts for about 0.18% of annual greenhouse gas emissions. By 2050, that share could increase by more than 10 times.

Reducing emissions from battery production

There are several ways to reduce the emissions required to manufacture batteries. Some elements used in different lithium-ion battery chemistries require more energy to mine and refine than others. Battery manufacturing also involves many stages where efficiency improvements could reduce energy use.

Recycling offers another option. Recovering battery materials and returning them to the supply chain requires far less energy than mining new materials.

Reducing the number of batteries that need to be made

Instead of focusing only on lowering carbon emissions per battery, the researchers compared strategies that reduce demand for new batteries. Manufacturing fewer batteries could avoid battery-production emissions altogether.

The research team used projections of battery lifecycle emissions through 2050 for electric vehicles (EVs) and energy storage. The analysis draws on future scenarios from the International Energy Agency and accounts for regional differences in battery demand and electricity generation.

As a result, the researchers compared potential emissions reductions not only with the battery industry’s current state, but also with a future industry that produces more batteries, recycles more used batteries, and operates on a cleaner power grid.