El Niño and UK Weather: What to Expect in Late 2026

Because the UK is thousands of miles from the tropical Pacific Ocean, the effects of El Niño on UK weather are less clear than in many other parts of the world.

More rain and storms possible this autumn and winter

Despite the distance, rainy and stormy conditions are likely across northwestern Europe in late autumn and early winter.

Forecasts published by the Met Office this autumn have identified “signs of increased autumn rainfall and storms here in the UK”, particularly during November and December.

Could El Niño bring severe UK flooding?

The winters of 2015 and 2016 coincided with an extremely strong El Niño event. During that period, a series of major storms led to what experts described at the time as “the most extreme flooding in history.”

Can El Niño cause a cold winter in the UK?

El Niño may also be associated with late-winter cold in the UK, but the connection is not strong and historical evidence is mixed.

The so-called Great Freeze of winter 2009/2010 was the coldest in 30 years at the time, and it coincided with El Niño.

However, the winter of 2006/2007 was also unseasonably warm during an El Niño event.

When will the current El Niño peak?

As this unprecedented El Niño approaches its peak, likely towards the end of 2026, scientists will continue to monitor its development and its impact on weather around the world.