A global shift towards healthier diets, more efficient agriculture, and significant reductions in food waste could transform farming practices and land usage by 2050.
Recent models indicate that adopting these strategies could potentially lower global agricultural land use by up to 6% compared to current projections. Concurrently, total livestock production may decline by 42% (approximately $630 billion) relative to 2020.
Reduce Livestock and Increase Plant-Based Foods
The most significant changes will occur in ruminant production (beef, sheep, goats). By 2050, the global value of this sector might drop by an estimated 70% (around $274 billion), leading to approximately 400 million fewer ruminants worldwide compared to 2020.
Conversely, the production of plant-based foods is expected to rise. The global value of vegetables, fruits, nuts, and pulses could see an increase of 57% (about $890 billion).
Legumes, including beans, peas, lentils, and chickpeas, are essential sources of protein and fiber, generally requiring fewer resources to cultivate than many animal products.
These findings stem from a comprehensive analysis published in Nature by researchers from the London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine (LSHTM), Cornell University, and 10 modeling teams. They examined potential outcomes if the world pursues food system transformations akin to those proposed by the EAT-Lancet Commission by 2025.
Health and Climate Benefits
The 2025 EAT-Lancet Commission report suggests that shifting to healthier diets could prevent 15 million premature deaths annually worldwide.
Previously, it was estimated that the global food system incurs $10 to $20 trillion in hidden costs yearly, including medical expenses, environmental degradation, and lost productivity—most of which correlate with unhealthy dietary choices.
New models reveal that these recommended transformations could significantly cut agriculture-related net CO2 emissions from land-use changes, potentially reducing them by 85% by 2050 compared to 2020 rates.
Land-use changes, such as deforestation and wetland drainage for agricultural space, often release large amounts of stored carbon. Net emissions reflect both carbon released and absorbed due to these changes.
Significant Disruptions for Farmers
Lead author Dr. Matt Gibson, who initiated his research at Cornell University before joining LSHTM, stated: “Transforming food systems holds substantial benefits for our health and the environment; however, these shifts will fundamentally alter global agriculture, affecting the livelihoods of millions of farmers and food producers.”
“Instead of viewing these results as an excuse for inaction, it’s imperative that governments confront this challenge and make difficult choices for our health and planet. This entails resisting powerful interests that currently benefit from the existing global food system, which is failing both food producers and consumers.”
The findings imply that this transition isn’t merely an environmental or public health initiative; it will also instigate significant economic changes, with some agricultural sectors shrinking while others expand.
“These scenarios should not be seen as definitive predictions but as useful preliminary guides to identify where challenges and opportunities may emerge,” said co-author Daniel Mason-Doclos from Cornell University. “True transformation won’t commence until 2050. Visionary modeling, like what is highlighted in this study, serves as a valuable tool for informing immediate actions toward a more sustainable, healthy, and equitable food system.”
Predictive modeling explores potential futures rather than pinpointing one exact outcome. By testing various assumptions, researchers can identify where economic disruptions, policy challenges, and new opportunities may arise.
Uneven Impacts Globally
The economic consequences are expected to vary significantly by country and region.
In the United States, total agricultural production could decrease by 21% (approximately $76 billion) by 2050 compared to 2020. While the crop production value may rise by 20% (around $40 billion), livestock production is projected to decline by 73% (about $116 billion).
Conversely, India might experience a different impact, with total agricultural production possibly increasing by 46% (about $198 billion). Crop production’s value could grow by 65% (around $208 billion), while livestock production value might dip by 8% (approximately $10 billion).
In Europe, expected overall agricultural production could decrease by 35% (around $190 billion), with a reduction in crop production value by 8% (about $22 billion) and livestock production by 66% (approximately $168 billion).
These regional variations are shaped by differences in agricultural systems, diet patterns, production costs, land availability, trade, and the types of food produced in each region.
Changing Eating Habits is Challenging
The researchers proposed that consumer preferences are gradually shifting towards healthier eating habits. However, this assumes that consumers will be willing to change their diets without addressing economic, cultural, or practical barriers that may complicate such a transition.
In reality, the affordability of healthy foods differs significantly across regions. Dietary choices are influenced by local customs, individual preferences, income levels, food availability, and broader cultural attitudes.
The researchers stressed that these scenarios represent just a subset of potential futures, highlighting the need for further research to explore alternative pathways based on varying policy choices, economic conditions, and consumer behaviors.
The authors advocate for decisive policy actions now to safeguard vulnerable food producers and consumers as agriculture transitions toward healthier and more sustainable diets. Without strategic planning, the benefits of this transition could be overshadowed by severe economic disruptions for communities reliant on livestock and other declining sectors.
Source: www.sciencedaily.com